IAEM Oceania

Scientists say a lahar caused by Ruapehu's Crater Lake spilling its banks could reach a size three times the size of the disastrous wave in the 1953 Tangiwai disaster. The chance of a lahar occurring within the next eight weeks is placed at somewhere between 30 per cent and 40 per cent so the risks are high. But while it could happen any day, Department of Conservation scientist Harry Keys says there is a better chance it will come next summer. In the worst-case scenario, the lahar could be up to three times bigger than that of 1953, although the more likely one is that it will be about the same size or a little larger.